Outlook 2011, Taking into account the world economic recovery is weak, China's economy endogenous growth momentum has not been fully restored, the stimulus effect of diminishing marginal impact of other factors, economic growth will be more integrated to determine a decline in 2010.
weak world economic recovery, the uncertainty of international environment, enhance
2011, the world economy is expected to continue recovery of the overall situation, but the international impact of the deep financial crisis has not completely eliminated, the world economy not yet entered a virtuous cycle of steady growth, systemic and structural risks are still quite prominent. World economic growth in 2011 than in 2010, the world's foreign economic recovery will be slow, prices and exchange rates have a negative impact.
(a) The global economy is in a downward economic cycle, four-fold superposition of
from the short-cycle perspective, covering inventory cycle, driven by rapid recovery in the global economy in 2010 was one peaked in the second quarter, decreasing the effects of policy stimulus, covering the end of the inventory under the influence of the second quarter of 2010, major economies have been a downward trend growth rate. Update cycle from the device to see, because of the lack of new economic growth point, low return on investment, enterprise scale renewal of equipment yet to come, in the From the real estate cycle, the current European and American countries is still very depressed real estate market is still in a deep period of adjustment. From a long period of technological innovation, the current world is pregnant with new energy, low-carbon technology revolution, but not major technological breakthroughs. Four in a downward economic cycle, the superposition of, therefore, economic growth, lack of motivation within the students.
(b) fiscal and financial risk yet to be resolved
hidden European sovereign debt crisis has not yet eliminated, some countries follow the implementation of tight fiscal policies can not be ignored; the potential risks of the financial system is still large, greatly reduced the effect of monetary policy. According to IMF estimates, from 2007 to 2010 the cumulative emergence of global financial institutions of toxic assets may reach 4 trillion U.S. dollars, currently only written off about half, which lags behind Europe. A large number of bad loans and bad assets of financial institutions exist to make the financing capabilities and market liquidity have been severely constrained, the financial system, take some time before full restoration of function, financial institutions do to promote the real economy has not entered a new period of preparation. Therefore, the current world economy still faces great pressure of cyclical adjustment in the short term can not enter the next round of economic rise.
(c) of the national economic policy will clearly differentiate
major developed countries is difficult under the high unemployment rate. Currently, the U.S., the euro area and Japan, the unemployment rate remained at 9.6%, 10.0% and 5.2% of the high, indicating that the country's economic recovery is a rebound from the low restorative, not driven job growth, is a jobless recovery.
developed countries, has embarked on a upward pressure on prices and higher asset prices. Super-global currency to developing countries is imported inflationary pressures. Prior to real improvement in the U.S. economy, the Fed will continue its accommodative monetary policy, the dollar a lot of release, into commodity markets, coupled with the opportunity to speculation of international speculative capital, pushing up commodity prices.
2011 emerging market countries and developed countries, economic performance and further differentiation, the developed countries maintain an accommodative macroeconomic policy orientation of the basic relaxed even further increase the intensity of macroeconomic policy in emerging market countries must take into account inflationary pressures, there neutral or even turn to tighten orientation.
Faced with many favorable conditions for economic development.
(a) of the favorable conditions
1. Seven new industries of strategic planning started a large number of industrial upgrading will bring the start investment projects, investment and further optimize the industrial structure . 2. Central Regional Economic Development on the new layout is an important factor in supporting economic growth. This will lead to achieve rapid economic growth in all regions and promote regional economic structure optimized to form a new pattern of regional round action. 3. With the 4. 5. Employment growth and improved income distribution will further promote the consumption of urban and rural residents active in the consumer goods market is expected to continue to maintain prosperity.
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